← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +11% |
| CD Nacional win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 422.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1517.16 | 1650.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.68 | -24.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| league points | 26.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.65 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |