← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 74% | 84% | 1.25 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 9% | 4% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 606.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1808.45 | 1518.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.12 | -12.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.10 |
| state index | 1.81 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |