← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 52% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.89 | 1398.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.14 | -30.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.55 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |