← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 53% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Setubal win | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1514.44 | 1394.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.72 | -5.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |