← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Fri, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 55% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Academica win | 18% | 13% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1543.08 | 1441.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.81 | -42.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.26 | -1.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |