← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 42% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1396.54 | 1401.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.81 | 37.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.68 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |