← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 46% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1454.06 | 1428.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.07 | -14.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |