← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Mon, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 49% | 55% | 1.91 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Setubal win | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1493.36 | 1422.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.57 | -4.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |