← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 47% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1649.28 | 1871.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.64 | 11.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.80 |
| league points | 27.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.79 |
| state index | 1.01 | 1.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |