← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 69% | 86% | 1.33 | value: +15% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 8% | 4.75 | fair |
| Setubal win | 11% | 6% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 585.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1396.19 | 1787.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.84 | 23.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 17.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.29 |
| state index | -0.73 | 1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |