← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 91% | 1.14 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 13% | 7% | 7.50 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 220.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1905.49 | 1449.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.66 | -31.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| league points | 50.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 2.78 | 0.82 |
| state index | 2.17 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |