← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 32% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1419.41 | 1480.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.97 | 16.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| league points | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.18 |
| state index | -1.32 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |