← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 29% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1469.34 | 1488.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.73 | 8.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |