← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 48% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 401.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1540.25 | 1528.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.12 | -5.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |