← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 41% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1501.48 | 1491.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.37 | 39.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| state index | -1.17 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |