← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 38% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| Maritimo win | 33% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1529.04 | 1640.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.34 | -15.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |