← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Fri, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 73% | 82% | 1.29 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 9% | 4% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1672.44 | 1377.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.58 | -5.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 31.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.53 |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |