← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Wed, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 82% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 7% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 209.00 | 390.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1867.58 | 1532.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.09 | 2.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.15 |
| league points | 47.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.76 | 1.47 |
| state index | 1.90 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |