← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Mon, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 50% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 21% | 28% | 4.33 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1543.85 | 1657.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.51 | 12.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 19.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.75 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |