← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 13% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1490.21 | 1864.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.62 | 6.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.80 |
| league points | 23.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.75 |
| state index | 0.29 | 1.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |