← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 49% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.40 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 23% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1527.67 | 1707.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.46 | 26.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 38.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 2.41 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |