← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 83% | 78% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 18% | 8.00 | value: +40% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 5% | 4% | 21.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 312.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1814.92 | 1459.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.40 | -5.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| league points | 73.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.07 |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |