← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 63% | 73% | 1.50 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 15% | 4.20 | fair |
| Leiria win | 14% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1432.36 | 1817.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.57 | 28.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| league points | 35.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.24 |
| state index | -0.90 | 1.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |