← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 74% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1679.04 | 1434.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.50 | -2.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |