← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 74% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1704.10 | 1472.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.54 | -48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 67.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.21 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |