← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1473.49 | 1436.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.38 | 0.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 25.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.75 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |