← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 49% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| Setubal win | 22% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1507.29 | 1408.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.20 | 7.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.89 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |