← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 48% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 24% | 21% | 3.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 114.00 | 663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1530.54 | 1469.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.19 | -44.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |