← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 40% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Academica win | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1421.69 | 1468.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.55 | -16.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |