← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 47% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Leiria win | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1445.64 | 1683.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.07 | -7.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |