← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.75 | fair |
| Setubal win | 11% | 13% | 8.50 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1758.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1412.73 | 1800.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.95 | 20.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 25.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.19 |
| state index | -0.31 | 1.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |