← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 73% | 71% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +15% |
| Setubal win | 8% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1681.10 | 1415.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.57 | 33.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.96 |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |