← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 45% | 60% | 2.10 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 19% | 3.20 | fair |
| Leiria win | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 107.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1520.73 | 1455.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.22 | 5.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |