← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 37% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 33% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1420.44 | 1456.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.87 | -37.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 16.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.72 | -1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |