← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 69% | 62% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +3% |
| Academica win | 10% | 15% | 10.00 | value: +51% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1471.82 | 1783.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.69 | 30.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 26.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.58 |
| state index | -0.68 | 1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |