← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 48% | 55% | 1.91 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 655.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.70 | 1423.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.75 | -1.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |