← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1469.77 | 1497.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.91 | -5.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |