← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 57% | 49% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.75 | value: +36% |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 17% | 15% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1774.88 | 1690.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.47 | 27.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| league points | 64.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.64 |
| state index | 1.76 | 1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |