← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 40% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Academica win | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1415.50 | 1471.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.03 | -23.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |