← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 38% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 32% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1439.54 | 1538.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.38 | -4.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 18.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |