← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 51% | 59% | 1.85 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 21% | 14% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1536.65 | 1466.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.38 | 0.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 36.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |