← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 66% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 12% | 16% | 8.00 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1744.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1424.79 | 1793.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.66 | -17.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 28.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.12 |
| state index | -0.99 | 1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |