← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
| Leiria win | 25% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1461.05 | 1685.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.32 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |