← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 39% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1422.03 | 1521.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.89 | -20.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |