← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Mon, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 65% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
| Naval win | 13% | 14% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1426.95 | 1769.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.51 | 25.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 29.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.54 |
| state index | 0.08 | 1.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |