← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 81% | 1.29 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 8% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1737.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1788.87 | 1506.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.03 | -8.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.25 |
| state index | 1.23 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |