← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 41% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Leiria win | 28% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1473.84 | 1458.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.05 | -4.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 24.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |