← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Fri, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 54% | 63% | 1.73 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 19% | 12% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 91.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1516.21 | 1414.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.61 | -27.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 29.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |