← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1452.66 | 1447.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.93 | -12.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 28.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.87 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |