← Primeira Liga 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 40% | 47% | 2.38 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Naval win | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1405.60 | 1436.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.88 | 36.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 15.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.26 |
| state index | -1.24 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |